This Time It Is Different

"The Battle of Long Island was a disaster for George Washington’s army. His ten thousand troops were crushed by the British and its four-hundred-ship fleet.

But it could have been so much worse. It could have been the end of the Revolutionary War.

All the British had to do was sail up the East River and Washington’s cornered troops would have been wiped out.

But it never happened, because the wind wasn’t blowing in the right direction and sailing up the river became impossible.

Historian David McCullough once told interviewer Charlie Rose that “if the wind had been in the other direction on the night of August twenty-eighth [1776], I think it would have all been over.”

“No United States of America if that had happened?” Rose asked.

“I don’t think so,” said McCullough.

“Just because of the wind, history was changed?” asked Rose.

“Absolutely,” said McCullough."

Morgan Housel. Same as Ever: Timeless Lessons on Risk, Opportunity and Living a Good Life (pp. 11-12). Harriman House.

In spite of one of the opening stories in his book being like this, Morgan Housel wrote a book about life being the "Same As Ever".

He does not so much as say "This time is different," some how?

You would have thought that with the backdrop and the point of the story as it is, that nothing would be the same because of the gust of a wind.

But the author goes on to expand that there are certain sureties in life, in spite of it all.

To find out how "the absurdity of past connections should humble your confidence in predicting future ones", read 'Same As Ever', by Morgan Housel.

The book is available in hardcopy from Kinokuniya Malaysia at https://invl.me/clnedr1. It will tell you how you can still predict future events!!

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