Your Square Hat

Imagine an old man who’s spent his entire life up in a small town. He’s the Lifer. No detail of the goings-on in the town has escaped his notice over the years. He knows the lineage, behavior, attitudes, jobs, income, and social status of every person in town. Bit by bit, he built that knowledge up over a long period of observation and participation in town affairs.

The Lifer knows where the bodies are buried and who buried them. He knows who owes money to whom, who gets along with whom, and who the town depends on to keep spinning. He knows about that time the mayor cheated on his taxes. He knows about that time the town flooded, how many inches high the water was, and exactly who helped whom and who didn’t.

Now imagine a Stranger enters the town, in from the Big City. Within a few days, the Stranger decides that he knows all there is to know about the town. He’s met the mayor, the sheriff, the bartender, and the shopkeeper, and he can get around fairly easily. It’s a small town and he hasn’t come across anything surprising.

In the Stranger’s mind, he’s convinced he pretty much knows everything a Lifer would know. He has sized up the town in no time, with his keen eye. He makes assumptions based on what he has learned so far, and figures he knows enough to get his business done. This, however, is a false sense of confidence that likely causes him to take more risks than he realizes. Without intimately knowing the history of the town, how can he be sure that he has picked the right land for development, or negotiated the best price?

After all, what kind of knowledge does he really have, compared to the Lifer?

Parrish, Shane; Beaubien, Rhiannon. The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts . Latticework Publishing Inc.

For more about the "Circle of Competence", check out Shane Parrish's book The Great Mental Models Volume 1: General Thinking Concepts.

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